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Everyone's Chasing the Nebius Dragon, But I'm Seeing Smoke
So, let me get this straight. A company called Nebius Group, ticker NBIS, is up over 350% this year. It has a market cap north of $30 billion, a negative P/E ratio that looks like a typo, and a story that’s being whispered in every Reddit forum and Discord server like it’s the secret to eternal life. The question everyone is asking is, "Can Investing $10,000 in Nebius Group Stock Make You a Millionaire?"
Give me a break.
The real question is, are we all so high on the AI hype train that we’ve forgotten how gravity works? Every investor with a Robinhood account is staring at the `nbis stock price` chart, sweat beading on their forehead, dreaming of becoming the next person to catch lightning in a bottle. They see the next `NVDA stock`. They see a can't-miss ticket to the moon. I see a rocket fueled by pure, uncut hope and a massive contract from Microsoft. And I’m starting to wonder what happens when that first-stage booster burns out.
The AI Gold Rush and Its Shiny New Shovel
Look, the story is seductive. I get it. AI is the biggest gold rush since, well, actual gold. And Nebius is selling the picks and shovels—massive GPU clusters designed for the kind of heavy-duty AI processing that makes companies like Nvidia gods among men. They operate something called a "NeoCloud," which sounds like a term an intern made up ten minutes before a press release, but it’s essentially a specialized cloud for AI workloads.
They even have a golden ticket: a $17.5 billion deal with Microsoft. This is the validation everyone points to. The big one. The proof that they're legit. And it is a monster deal, no doubt about it. It’s the kind of deal that turns a speculative startup into a market darling overnight.
But this company feels less like a business and more like a physics experiment in momentum. It’s like strapping yourself to a single, gigantic firework. The ride up is spectacular, a glorious streak of light and thunder that has everyone on the ground staring in awe. But a firework isn't a spaceship. It doesn't have a second stage. It's designed for a brief, brilliant explosion before it disappears into the dark. What’s the plan for when the Microsoft money is just a line item on an old earnings report? What’s the next act? Or is this it?
This isn't happening in a vacuum, either. The market is littered with these kinds of stories right now. You’ve got `IREN stock` pivoting from crypto to AI, and `OKLO stock` trying to power the whole damn thing with mini nuclear reactors despite having no sales. It's a mania, and Nebius is just the current prom king.
The Numbers Just Don't Add Up
Let's talk fundamentals for a second, even though I know that’s a dirty word in 2025. Nebius has a price-to-earnings ratio of -219. That’s not a typo. They are fantastically unprofitable. The company had a negative gross margin in the last report. They're losing money on their core business. No, that's not quite right—the PR folks would say they're investing heavily in growth. It’s amazing how a different set of words can make burning piles of cash sound like a brilliant strategy.
And can we just address the elephant in the room? The CEO, Arkady Volozh, founded Yandex, which was basically the Google of Russia. After the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions hit, he spearheaded a pivot, divested the Russian assets, and rebranded the international parts as Nebius Group, an AI infrastructure powerhouse. It’s a hell of a turnaround story, and Volozh is clearly a sharp operator. But the market seems to have completely memory-holed the geopolitical chaos that birthed this company in its current form. We’re just supposed to accept the new narrative and ignore the old one...
Are we really that simple? Is a good story all it takes to command a $30 billion valuation with no profits in sight? This whole thing feels less like an investment and more like a belief system. You either believe in the AI revolution so completely that financials don't matter, or you don't. There's no in-between.
A Market Addicted to Momentum
This isn't really about Nebius, is it? It’s about us. It’s about a market that has lost its mind. We’re all chasing the next 100-bagger, the next stock that can turn a stimulus check into a down payment on a house. We saw what happened with `Nvidia stock` and `TSLA stock`, and now we have a severe case of FOMO. We're rewarding stories, not results. Potential, not profit.
"Full-stack AI infrastructure" is just the new "synergistic e-commerce solution" from the dot-com bust. It's a phrase that sounds important and futuristic but is vague enough that nobody can really pin down what it means. It’s a classic story, and offcourse the ending is usually the same: a handful of people get filthy rich, and a lot of ordinary folks are left wondering where their money went.
Then again, maybe I'm just an old man yelling at a cloud. I've been skeptical before and been wrong. People who bought `NVDA` when it looked expensive are laughing all the way to the bank. Maybe this time is different. Maybe AI is so transformative that the old rules of valuation and profitability genuinely don't apply anymore. Maybe Nebius will be worth $3 trillion someday.
But I doubt it.
It's a Lottery Ticket, Not an Investment
So, can $10,000 in Nebius make you a millionaire? Sure. It's also possible you could get struck by lightning while cashing in a winning Powerball ticket. Don't mistake a momentum trade for a sound investment. This isn't a company; it's a narrative stock, a casino chip in the great AI gamble of 2025. Buy it if you feel lucky. Just don't come crying to me when the music stops and you're left holding a very expensive bag of GPUs and broken dreams.
